Two waves of diversification in mammals and reptiles of Baja California revealed by hierarchical Bayesian analysis.

Many species inhabiting the Peninsular Desert of Baja California demonstrate a phylogeographic break at the mid-peninsula, and previous researchers have attributed this shared pattern to a single vicariant event, a mid-peninsular seaway. However, previous studies have not explicitly considered the inherent stochasticity associated with the gene-tree coalescence for species preceding the time of the putative mid-peninsular divergence. We use a Bayesian analysis of a hierarchical model to test for simultaneous vicariance across co-distributed sister lineages sharing a genealogical break at the mid-peninsula. This Bayesian method is advantageous over traditional phylogenetic interpretations of biogeography because it considers the genetic variance associated with the coalescent and mutational processes, as well as the among-lineage demographic differences that affect gene-tree coalescent patterns. Mitochondrial DNA data from six small mammals and six squamate reptiles do not support the perception of a shared vicariant history among lineages exhibiting a north-south divergence at the mid-peninsula, and instead support two events differentially structuring genetic diversity in this region.